trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +4.2% | -5.8% | 100% | 0% | -5.8% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +27.4% | +15.3% | 75% | 62% | +38.0% |
| all | 26 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 65% | 50% | -3.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.0% | 50% | -3.7% |
| 10% | -15.9% | 38% | -12.9% |
| 15% | -24.0% | 27% | -21.3% |
| 20% | -31.5% | 19% | -29.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 01 | $19 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | May 10 | $31 | +$18 | +59% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 09 | $31 | +$36 | +114% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | Apr 23 | $25 | −$3 | -14% |
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | Apr 21 | $37 | +$16 | +44% |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Apr 21 | $40 | +$40 | +101% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 09 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Mar 25 | $9 | −$7 | -84% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Mar 25 | $20 | −$17 | -83% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Mar 16 | $40 | +$11 | +27% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? | Mar 13 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Mar 13 | $8 | $0 | +5% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Mar 01 | $12 | +$13 | +113% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Feb 27 | $10 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Feb 13 | $84 | −$84 | -100% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Feb 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Jan 29 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Remote IPO before 2027? | Jan 28 | $6 | +$2 | +28% |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Jan 20 | $20 | +$5 | +23% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Jan 20 | $10 | −$5 | -50% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 20 | $10 | −$7 | -74% |
| Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port | Jan 19 | $8 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 | Jan 19 | $11 | +$5 | +44% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 18 | $30 | +$33 | +111% |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Jan 10 | $27 | −$10 | -38% |