Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5C 0x5c37…907e weather 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%104W / 8L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$4
politics 1% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.5% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 48 -2.0% -11.3% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 98 -0.8% -10.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 112 -0.7% -10.2% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×52.4 per $1 lost it wins $52.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses104 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage123d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 23 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 8? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 31? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 31 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 29 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 28? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 27? May 28 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 25? May 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 23? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $26 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $116 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $8 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $116 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $116 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $91 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $83 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $116 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 10d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $109 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $115 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $115 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $116 13d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $115 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $67 15d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $37 15d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $115 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.88 · official $116.88 (match) · 225 history records