Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c3a…4e99 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$133 (-18%) realized −$146 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day87.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$209
politics 1% −$4
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 25% +19.9%
≤30d 28 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 25% +19.9%
≤90d 28 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 25% +19.9%
all 28 -26.2% -33.2% 25% 25% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 25% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 25% +8.4%
15% -45.5% 25% -2.0%
20% -50.8% 18% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$15 · ×4.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day87.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 27¢ 46¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+72%)
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$210 +441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $83 −$30 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$62 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$107 +406%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$84 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $30 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $209 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.81 · official $39.65 · 89 history records