Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5c3c…992d other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$189
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$82
other 36% +$151
crypto 6% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -38.8% -44.6% 31% 31% +12.0%
≤30d 44 -34.1% -40.4% 34% 32% -4.9%
≤90d 46 -37.0% -43.0% 33% 30% -6.0%
all 48 -39.6% -45.3% 31% 29% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 29% -7.1%
10% -50.6% 29% -16.0%
15% -55.3% 27% -24.1%
20% -59.7% 25% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$15 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage226d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 54¢ 53¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $23 +$16 +67%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $105 +$60 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -96%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $48 +$43 +90%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 +$22 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $189 +$98 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $77 +$54 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $40 +$10 +26%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $34 +$63 +189%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $186 −$121 -65%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $70 +$49 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $52 +$41 +79%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 54¢ $27 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $23 14h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 15h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $165 15h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $105 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 40¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 29¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 19¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 73¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 33¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 33¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 62¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.57 · official $45.57 (match) · 124 history records