Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5C 0x5c3d…f59c other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$11 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate26%7W / 20L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day25.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit23%portable

Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-20.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-11.8%	-20.2%	26%	22%	-10.9%
≤30d	27	-11.8%	-20.2%	26%	22%	-10.9%
≤90d	27	-11.8%	-20.2%	26%	22%	-10.9%
all	27	-11.8%	-20.2%	26%	22%	-10.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.9 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-20.2%	22%	-10.9%
10% ← realistic here	-27.8%	22%	-19.4%
15%	-34.8%	19%	-27.2%
20%	-41.2%	15%	-34.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -29% → late +4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$12 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$454

Realized+$11

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses7 / 20

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)27 / 35

History coverage2d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day25.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	44¢	42¢	$200	$193	−$7 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	61¢	62¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-8%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$50	$43	−$7 (-14%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran?	Yes	7¢	18¢	$5	$13	+$8 (+156%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran?	Yes	6¢	7¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	−$12	-24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	+$28	+55%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	Jun 21	$21	−$21	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$5	$0	+1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 21	$5	+$37	+712%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$91	+$43	+47%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$36	+70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	−$23	-46%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria?	Jun 20	$5	−$2	-37%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria?	Jun 20	$5	−$2	-38%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 20	$5	+$24	+474%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$201	+$55	+27%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco?	Jun 20	$15	−$9	-60%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$46	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	53¢	$38	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	17¢	$5	16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	38¢	$41	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	38¢	$29	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$203	25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	26h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	26h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	26h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	26h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	26h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	27¢	$28	41h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	43h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria?	SELL Yes	4¢	$3	43h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.50 · official $453.50 (match) · 71 history records