Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c48…35fe weather 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$213 (+1%) realized +$216 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate89%144W / 18L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$847now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$46
14 days+$81
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$236
sports 1% −$44
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 53 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 2% -8.3%
≤90d 110 +1.6% -8.0% 95% 3% -8.5%
all 162 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 12% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 12% -8.7%
10% -19.5% 6% -17.4%
15% -27.3% 1% -25.4%
20% -34.4% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$847
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses144 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)162 / 165
History coverage142d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $420 $416 −$4 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $330 $333 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 28? No 99¢ 97¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June Jun 26 $210 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? Jun 26 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 24? Jun 25 $320 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 24 $301 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 24 $500 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $600 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 21? Jun 22 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $600 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 19? Jun 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 18 $400 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $240 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $400 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $220 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $250 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $240 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $233 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $250 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $340 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $21 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 10 $230 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 09 $400 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 07 $400 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 6? Jun 07 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 5? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 05 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 03 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 02 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ma May 30 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $420 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $330 40h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $300 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $313 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $210 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $301 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $506 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $320 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $300 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $200 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $300 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $200 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $200 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $200 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $200 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $243 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $400 10d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $402 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 97¢ $40 11d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $200 11d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $201 11d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $21 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.45 · official $847.45 (match) · 368 history records