Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5c48…3d70
other · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$81 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$82 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses7 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage572d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 21 $10 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $30 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $37 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 06 $14 +$7 +50%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $23 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $86 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $13,557 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $2,298 −$9 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 81% −$14
politics 14% −$9
other 3% −$21
sports 1% −$39
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey BUY Croatia 11¢ $2 25d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 27d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $7 31d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 32d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 32d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 33d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 33d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 34d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 34d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 37d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 37d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 38d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 38d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 -18.2% -26.0% 18% 0% -16.1%
≤90d 32 -26.6% -33.6% 16% 3% -16.9%
all 42 -20.5% -28.1% 17% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -34.9% 2% -18.6%
15% -41.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -47.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.27 · official $4.27 (match) · 202 history records