Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c4b…2b64 politics 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,077 (-1%) realized −$1,078 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%38W / 119L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,025per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$20
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$82
other 29% +$197
sports 23% −$1,216
economics 3% −$4
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$8
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 -1.5% -10.8% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 93 -1.9% -11.2% 5% 3% -9.2%
all 157 +0.0% -9.5% 24% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 10% -10.1%
10% -18.2% 10% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 8% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,440) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$33 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$1,078
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses38 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,025
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $320 $322 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $234 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $271 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $741 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $968 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,857 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,847 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,819 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,440 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,857 −$4 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $68 −$68 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $86 +$47 +55%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,965 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,183 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,097 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $478 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $313 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $468 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $550 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,055 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 26 $498 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $553 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $3,703 −$4 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $233 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $224 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $233 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $234 3h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 8h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $257 10h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $236 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $236 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $283 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $283 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $337 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $338 3d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 3d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $226 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $821 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $823 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $740 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $741 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $728 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $729 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $735 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $737 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $842 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $844 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $743 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $745 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $507 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $508 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $814 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $815 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.90 · official $321.90 (match) · 489 history records