Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c4f…3338 other 56 markets active 3h ago coverage 169d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,262 (-28%) realized −$5,231 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 169d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$11,145
crypto 6% −$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-84.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -92.0% -92.8% 1% 1% -99.8%
≤30d 155 -84.7% -86.1% 2% 2% -97.0%
≤90d 187 -85.5% -86.9% 2% 2% -95.5%
all 277 -82.9% -84.5% 3% 3% -88.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.5% 3% -88.7%
10% -86.0% 3% -89.8%
15% -87.4% 2% -90.8%
20% -88.6% 2% -91.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -104% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$59 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$5,231
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 269
Open positions7
Markets (closed)277 / 56
History coverage169d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 50¢ $10 $50 +$40 (+405%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $50 $6 −$44 (-87%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 249 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +900%
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$10 -130%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$10 -139%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$215 -1836%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$10 -151%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$9 -369%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$10 -110%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$9 -280%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Jun 17 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Jun 17 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$10 -122%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$9 -245%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in January 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $23 46h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $15 46h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.56 · official $154.97 (match) · 1483 history records