Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c4f…72be world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$3
world 32% −$2
politics 21% −$1
sports 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 37 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 37 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 37 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -10.4%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage12d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,216,000 and $1,230,000 on June 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 on June 30? No 83¢ 76¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $14 −$2 -15%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 14 $17 −$1 -6%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Izquierdo Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Hanne Vandewinkel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 11 $24 $0 -2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Kasintseva vs. Lepchenko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Minnen Jun 10 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026 Jun 10 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 71¢ $11 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $11 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $28 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $12 3h
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $12 3h
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? SELL No 89¢ $4 3h
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? BUY No 89¢ $4 3h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 22h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 24h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? SELL No 91¢ $18 26h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? BUY No 91¢ $18 26h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 77¢ $8 26h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 77¢ $8 26h
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 33¢ $11 27h
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 38¢ $14 27h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $2 28h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $3 28h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $2 28h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $3 28h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 31¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records