Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5C 0x5c50…e0c9 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,566 (+3%) realized +$3,818 · open +$1,748
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 42L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,467per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$4,014est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,748now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,612
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 39% -9.1%
≤30d 72 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 39% -9.1%
≤90d 72 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 39% -9.1%
all 72 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 39% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 39% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 36% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 35% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 35% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$2,893) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,735 vs −$1,933 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$6,748
Realized+$3,818
Unrealized+$1,748
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$4,014
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2,467
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 30¢ 59¢ $2,000 $3,916 +$1,916 (+96%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 49¢ 46¢ $3,000 $2,832 −$168 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $1,428 −$1,400 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $3,369 +$6,126 +182%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $6,009 −$6,009 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $2,026 −$2,026 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $3,345 +$600 +18%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $2,041 +$3,856 +189%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $2,344 +$4,058 +173%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $2,036 +$3,780 +186%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2,036 +$2,762 +136%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $2,027 −$2,027 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $2,038 −$2,038 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $2,032 +$2,228 +110%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $2,044 −$2,044 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $8,645 +$1,572 +18%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 15 $12,768 −$1,428 -11%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $402 −$402 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $2,042 −$2,042 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 15 $3,355 −$1,769 -53%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $2,045 −$2,045 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2,026 −$2,026 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $2,033 −$2,033 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $4,023 +$920 +23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $1,313 −$1,313 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $2,052 −$2,052 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $2,046 −$2,046 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $2,038 +$3,460 +170%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2,039 +$3,206 +157%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2,047 +$3,482 +170%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $3,054 −$241 -8%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $2,032 +$2,160 +106%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 14 $2,124 −$2,124 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $6,137 −$6,137 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $3,042 +$2,528 +83%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $2,038 +$3,284 +161%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $3,870 +$5,775 +149%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $4,172 −$2,010 -48%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $2,048 −$2,048 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $4,065 −$1,518 -37%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $4,067 −$4,067 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $4,666 −$4,666 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $5,536 +$6,827 +123%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $2,044 −$2,044 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $4,084 −$4,084 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 34¢ $1,428 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 49¢ $3,046 2h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 30¢ $2,042 2h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 88¢ $8,480 12h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 80¢ $1,015 12h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 30¢ $3,369 13h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 48¢ $2,945 15h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 44¢ $18 15h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 50¢ $3,045 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $868 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $47 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $35 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $55 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $141 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $28 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $61 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $671 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $69 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $10 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $705 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $31 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $1 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $74 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $850 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $55 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $14 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $14 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,748.13 · official $6,914.06 · 305 history records