Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c52…1360 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$4
other 19% $0
sports 9% $0
politics 8% $0
culture 6% $0
finance 5% $0
economics 4% +$2
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.9% -13.0% 22% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 14 -2.5% -11.8% 21% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 14 -2.5% -11.8% 21% 0% -10.7%
all 29 +4.2% -5.7% 41% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -14.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -23.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -30.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage262d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $16 −$5 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 13 $28 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 10 $1 +$2 +152%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 01 $25 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $28 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $29 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $29 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $29 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $29 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records