Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5C 0x5c54…9f63 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$55 (+9%) realized +$57 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$95
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$50
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +37.1% +24.1% 74% 74% +20.9%
≤30d 30 +23.4% +11.7% 67% 67% +2.1%
≤90d 30 +23.4% +11.7% 67% 67% +2.1%
all 30 +23.4% +11.7% 67% 67% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 67% +2.1%
10% +1.0% 67% -7.7%
15% -8.8% 67% -16.6%
20% -17.7% 63% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage12d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 50¢ 50¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 40¢ 40¢ $96 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $18 +$22 +119%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $18 +$16 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $16 +$11 +65%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $16 +$14 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $16 +$13 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $15 +$28 +188%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $15 +$8 +52%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $15 +$10 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $15 +$13 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $13 +$17 +129%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $13 +$5 +38%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $13 +$9 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $13 +$11 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 +$8 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $11 +$8 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $12 +$7 +62%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $12 +$8 +65%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $97 27m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $97 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $18 17h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $18 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $18 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $18 41h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $16 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $16 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $16 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $16 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $15 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $15 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $15 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $15 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $15 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $15 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $13 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $13 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $13 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $1 5d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $13 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $10 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $11 7d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $12 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $12 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $12 8d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ $12 8d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 9d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $1 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.15 · official $190.11 (match) · 54 history records