Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c57…93a8 other 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,642 (-5%) realized −$1,600 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate95%134W / 7L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$280
14 days+$391
30 days−$1,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$798
finance 9% −$2,481
culture 8% +$26
politics 5% −$135
tech 3% +$28
sports 3% +$10
weather 3% +$3
crypto 2% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +16.3% +5.2% 97% 52% -2.8%
≤30d 134 +4.3% -5.6% 96% 21% -15.0%
≤90d 141 +3.4% -6.4% 95% 20% -14.3%
all 141 +3.4% -6.4% 95% 20% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 20% -14.3%
10% -15.4% 10% -22.5%
15% -23.6% 6% -30.0%
20% -31.0% 1% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$406 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized−$1,600
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses134 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage32d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day 6? No 84¢ 78¢ $617 $575 −$42 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day Jun 19 $620 +$3 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $542 +$13 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $347 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? Jun 18 $495 +$3 +1%
Will "Texas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 47 million views on day 4? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $42 +$8 +20%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $58 +$12 +21%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $489 +$32 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $82 +$4 +4%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $38 +$14 +36%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $65 +$21 +33%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 15 $44 +$16 +36%
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $36 +$17 +47%
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $47 +$15 +32%
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $36 +$13 +37%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $52 +$10 +20%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $87 +$32 +37%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $18 +$4 +24%
Will MrBeast say "Jet" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $212 +$58 +27%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $112 +$18 +16%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +157%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 11 $251 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 10? Jun 11 $83 $0 +0%
Will Oracle say "Tariff" during earnings call? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Oracle say "Open Source" during earnings call? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Oracle say "Bubble" during earnings call? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Oracle say "Temu" during earnings call? Jun 11 $156 +$2 +1%
Will Oracle say "Debt" during earnings call? Jun 11 $129 +$1 +1%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $174 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $327 +$9 +3%
Will Tim Cook say "Privilege" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 09 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Tim Cook say "Cheaper" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Tim Cook say "M5" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Tim Cook say "Amazing" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 Jun 09 $63 +$2 +3%
Will John Ternus say "Siri" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 Jun 09 $25 +$1 +5%
Will John Ternus say "Update" or "Updated" during the Apple WWDC 2026 Jun 09 $34 +$1 +4%
Will John Ternus say "Powerful" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Ju Jun 09 $34 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day BUY No 84¢ $622 13m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day SELL No 100¢ $622 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day BUY No 99¢ $620 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day BUY No 100¢ $65 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 99¢ $223 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 99¢ $11 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 98¢ $103 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 96¢ $14 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 96¢ $29 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 96¢ $163 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $347 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 27h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY No 100¢ $6 28h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 100¢ $15 28h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $126 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $15 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $19 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $30 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $30 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $15 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $15 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $60 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $5 30h
Will "Texas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 100¢ $14 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $5 30h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will MrBeast's next video get 53.5 million or more views on day 5? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.10 · official $575.10 (match) · 539 history records