Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c5d…24bb sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%41W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$379
14 days−$304
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$346
other 9% −$431
crypto 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -16.5% -24.5% 47% 37% -17.8%
≤30d 47 -9.1% -17.8% 49% 38% -14.4%
≤90d 60 -3.1% -12.3% 53% 37% -9.0%
all 74 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 42% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 42% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 34% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 28% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 18% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$62 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 33
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage226d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $8 +$3 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $43 −$13 -29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$83 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$26 -51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$23 -46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 −$36 -72%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $229 +$97 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $137 +$96 +70%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $100 −$69 -69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $287 −$281 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $766 +$47 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$48 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $255 +$16 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $106 +$34 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$44 -44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $223 +$17 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $143 −$60 -42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$37 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$57 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$3 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $204 −$43 -21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Jun 12 $252 −$252 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $52 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $100 +$18 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$11 +22%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) Jun 09 $21 −$6 -29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $209 +$32 +15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $61 +$34 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $101 −$93 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$11 +45%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $109 +$114 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$44 +87%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $71 +$170 +238%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $199 −$125 -63%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $88 −$79 -90%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $29 +$8 +27%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $171 −$83 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Tunisia $3 58m
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Tunisia $8 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia $8 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 31¢ $30 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $28 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $28 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $29 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $93 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $92 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $25 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $27 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 20¢ $14 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 92¢ $91 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records