Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c5f…0614 sports 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$462 (-11%) realized −$462 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%108W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$363
14 days+$298
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$87
other 38% −$89
crypto 14% −$55
world 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +38.2% +25.0% 70% 70% +26.9%
≤30d 108 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 51% +0.9%
≤90d 273 -15.5% -23.5% 40% 38% -14.4%
all 273 -15.5% -23.5% 40% 38% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 38% -14.4%
10% -30.9% 36% -22.5%
15% -37.5% 33% -30.0%
20% -43.7% 26% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$462
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses108 / 165
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)273 / 280
History coverage70d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 273 Trades
no open positions (115 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $31 +$9 +29%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 $0 -1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $7 +$4 +58%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $68 +$27 +39%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 27 $31 +$15 +48%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $18 −$18 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $28 +$48 +172%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $34 +$14 +42%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $27 +$17 +62%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $20 +$15 +73%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $25 +$12 +49%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 25 $15 +$8 +56%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$14 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$34 +220%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 Jun 24 $15 +$26 +171%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $17 +$17 +97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $13 +$19 +145%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on Jun 24 $11 +$16 +146%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 +$10 +46%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $19 +$8 +44%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$9 +101%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$8 +78%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $14 +$18 +124%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $15 +$14 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $9 +$16 +172%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $20 −$16 -79%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$15 +144%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $19 +$22 +116%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $14 +$15 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $30 +$16 +53%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $18 +$25 +139%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$4 +32%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) SELL Belgium 100¢ $59 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 99¢ $40 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $11 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 89¢ $56 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 51¢ $30 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 59¢ $37 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 64¢ $32 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 65¢ $6 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 49¢ $30 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 76¢ $31 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $18 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $7 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $34 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $27 9h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 10h
Senegal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $38 10h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 11h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 17¢ $10 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 36¢ $28 11h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: SELL 61¢ $23 30h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 72¢ $24 30h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $15 31h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: BUY 38¢ $15 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 534 history records