Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c61…5010 other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$58
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$30
sports 38% −$37
crypto 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 45% +4.7%
≤30d 57 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 42% -5.6%
≤90d 57 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 42% -5.6%
all 57 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 42% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 42% -5.6%
10% -26.5% 35% -14.6%
15% -33.6% 26% -22.9%
20% -40.1% 16% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 30
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage9d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +132%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 $0 -1%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 26 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +330%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $66 +$58 +87%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 +$11 +213%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -66%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$5 +262%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -56%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$14 -69%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +42%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$13 +124%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$1 -6%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$4 -39%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $13 −$8 -63%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -85%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$46 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 2m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 25m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 27m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 27m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 23h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 35h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.32 · official $10.32 (match) · 132 history records