Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5c62…2dda crypto 470 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$575 (-0%) realized −$575 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%447W / 22L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$674per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days−$1,211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$380
weather 10% −$121
politics 2% −$111
other 0% +$9
culture 0% −$33
sports 0% $0
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 49 -2.7% -12.0% 94% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 263 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.8%
all 469 -1.1% -10.5% 95% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$996) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$83 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses447 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)469 / 470
History coverage260d
Avg bet$674
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $204 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $203 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $202 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $201 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $201 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $199 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $993 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $994 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $991 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $201 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $753 +$38 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,423 −$904 -64%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $265 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1,581 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $1,843 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,840 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $992 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $463 −$404 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $585 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $126 +$6 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 31 $678 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C or below on May 29? May 30 $248 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 28? May 28 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on May 27? May 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,800 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 26? May 27 $2,160 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $2,214 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 25? May 26 $989 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $206 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $206 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $206 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $205 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $205 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $205 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $105 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $204 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $204 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $203 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $203 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $203 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $203 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $203 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $202 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $202 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $202 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $201 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $201 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $200 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $170 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $199 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $199 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $993 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $994 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $991 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.90 · official $205.90 (match) · 1133 history records