Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c62…df8a other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate67%46W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$6
crypto 14% +$8
economics 13% +$1
sports 7% $0
tech 7% −$2
finance 5% +$10
politics 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +34.3% +21.5% 100% 100% +21.5%
≤30d 7 +17.1% +6.0% 100% 57% +4.8%
≤90d 37 -7.6% -16.4% 62% 19% -9.3%
all 69 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 16% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 16% -8.8%
10% -22.3% 10% -17.5%
15% -29.8% 4% -25.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses46 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)69 / 92
History coverage138d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 82¢ 82¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 55¢ 40¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 33¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 27 $8 +$3 +34%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 06 $11 +$3 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $25 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $30 +$7 +25%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 20 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? May 06 $6 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $44 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 06 $19 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 06 $8 +$1 +15%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 06 $14 +$1 +7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 06 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $27 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 29 $23 +$2 +7%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 18 $12 −$2 -13%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $14 −$3 -22%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 03 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 03 $8 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 03 $20 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 03 $14 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 03 $28 +$2 +8%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 03 $38 +$17 +45%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $18 +$1 +8%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $17 $0 -2%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $30 $0 +1%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 07 $40 +$3 +6%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 82¢ $9 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 87¢ $18 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $16 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $17 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $20 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $21 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $21 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $21 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $22 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $22 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $22 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $22 8d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $4 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.88 · official $61.75 · 301 history records