Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c64…90c1 crypto 624 markets active 3d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%309W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -6.3% -15.3% 55% 54% -13.8%
≤30d 111 -6.3% -15.3% 55% 54% -13.8%
≤90d 624 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 49% -13.9%
all 624 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 49% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 49% -13.9%
10% -22.9% 47% -22.2%
15% -30.3% 44% -29.7%
20% -37.1% 40% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses309 / 315
Open positions0
Markets (closed)624 / 624
History coverage64d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 624 Trades
no open positions (314 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 946 history records