Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c64…6a08 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,724 (+43%) realized +$2,793 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$1,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,071
7 days+$1,952
14 days+$2,558
30 days+$2,558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$2,521
world 1% −$2
sports 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 36% +33.3%
≤30d 19 -9.3% -17.9% 37% 37% +35.4%
≤90d 19 -9.3% -17.9% 37% 37% +35.4%
all 19 -9.3% -17.9% 37% 37% +35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 37% +35.4%
10% -25.8% 37% +22.4%
15% -32.9% 37% +10.6%
20% -39.5% 32% -0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$541 vs −$102 · ×5.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,086
Realized+$2,793
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage9d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1,035 $1,028 −$8 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 0¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $816 +$401 +49%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $310 +$877 +283%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,359 +$833 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $411 −$400 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $636 +$642 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 +$154 +299%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$46 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $435 +$573 +132%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $78 −$75 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $313 +$309 +99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,055 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $62 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $42 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,217 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $816 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,187 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $310 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,192 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $491 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $869 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $206 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $206 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,277 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $236 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $400 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $77 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $77 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $206 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $205 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $52 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $78 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $435 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $104 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $621 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,085.75 · official $1,086.25 (match) · 35 history records