Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c64…4faa other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$13
other 29% −$47
sports 15% −$11
crypto 10% $0
economics 6% −$3
finance 3% −$1
culture 3% −$3
world 2% −$3
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 68 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 138 -0.6% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 120
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage102d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 19 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $54 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $137 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $545 −$2 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $205 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $67 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $105 −$3 -3%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $57 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $50 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Andy Beshear be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $95 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $44 −$2 -5%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $63 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $54 2h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 10h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 10h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 18h
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 91¢ $48 19h
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 94¢ $50 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $46 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $46 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $54 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $44 42h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $10 42h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 43h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $6 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $68 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $68 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $57 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $58 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 3d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $50 3d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.00 · official $38.00 (match) · 493 history records