Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c65…6124 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$526 (-35%) realized −$527 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$573
7 days−$529
14 days−$529
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$268
other 33% −$237
world 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.2% -6.7% 37% 37% -46.7%
≤30d 35 +3.2% -6.7% 37% 37% -46.7%
≤90d 36 +2.9% -6.9% 36% 36% -44.5%
all 36 +2.9% -6.9% 36% 36% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 36% -44.5%
10% -15.8% 36% -49.8%
15% -24.0% 36% -54.7%
20% -31.4% 36% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$41 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$527
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage43d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $226 −$223 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $147 −$144 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$7 -72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $96 −$95 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $85 +$81 +95%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $138 −$136 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$30 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$61 +76%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$31 +303%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +84%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$33 +325%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$14 +137%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$17 +323%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$13 -62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 +$33 +87%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $36 +$49 +136%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $99 −$7 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $71 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 29¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 15¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $54 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $149 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 28¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 16¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $10 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $75 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $31 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA $10 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 29¢ $20 15h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 24h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 25h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Spirit 41¢ $31 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $96 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $166 31h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $138 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $10 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $30 33h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $45 33h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.54 · official $100.54 (match) · 72 history records