Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c69…444b other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$29
politics 20% −$6
economics 5% −$1
sports 1% −$40
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -6.6% -15.5% 9% 4% -9.8%
all 95 -6.6% -15.5% 9% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.6% 4% -18.4%
15% -30.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage89d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $266 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $263 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $282 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $279 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $517 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,418 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $759 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $265 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $282 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $267 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $1,411 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $265 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $289 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $277 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 11 $293 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 11 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $534 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $188 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $57 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $58 12d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $39 12d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 22d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 22d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $42 23d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $42 23d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 26d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 26d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 28d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $42 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $42 29d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 29d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 30d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 30d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $266 32d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $43 33d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $180 33d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $43 33d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $257 33d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $257 34d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $261 34d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $261 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.09 · official $259.09 (match) · 287 history records