Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5c6a…3b2e crypto 1081 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,689 (-6%) realized −$3,695 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%657W / 548L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day90.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,637
sports 1% +$99
tech 0% +$118
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -78.7% -80.7% 13% 10% -80.8%
≤30d 1192 -18.0% -25.8% 54% 43% -22.3%
≤90d 1205 -18.0% -25.8% 55% 43% -22.1%
all 1205 -18.0% -25.8% 55% 43% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 43% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 32% -29.6%
15% -39.4% 23% -36.4%
20% -45.3% 18% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$40 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$3,695
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses657 / 548
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1205 / 1081
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day90.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 33¢ 50¢ $36 $54 +$18 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 58¢ 50¢ $36 $32 −$5 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 84¢ 50¢ $34 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 17¢ 50¢ $3 $10 +$6 (+191%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 486 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$17 -1108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $287 −$287 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $140 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $170 −$223 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$6 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.71 · official $115.71 (match) · 3500 history records