Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c6b…f32b weather 196 markets active 13h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,369 (-9%) realized −$18,680 · open −$689
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate74%142W / 49L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,043per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,868
7 days−$6,205
14 days−$20,861
30 days−$18,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$20,143
world 2% +$345
crypto 0% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.4% -13.5% 93% 0% -19.7%
≤30d 115 -1.0% -10.5% 95% 3% -18.5%
≤90d 191 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 12% -18.3%
all 191 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 12% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 12% -18.3%
10% -21.8% 7% -26.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.4% 7% -33.2%
20% -36.3% 7% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,314) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$553 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$5,111
Realized−$18,680
Unrealized−$689
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses142 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)191 / 196
History coverage57d
Avg bet$1,043
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 84¢ $4,705 $4,015 −$690 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $668 $669 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $421 $421 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5,034 +$81 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $1,116 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $166 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8,631 −$7,141 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,192 +$24 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6,603 +$241 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $535 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $116 −$111 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,495 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,358 +$23 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $821 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,358 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,069 +$55 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,392 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $978 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4,218 +$56 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $3,526 +$36 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $375 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $278 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 13 $1,657 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,710 +$24 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2,443 +$88 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2,240 +$93 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $864 +$34 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4,120 +$170 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,343 +$29 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 10 $1,075 +$26 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,022 +$27 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,906 +$102 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,561 +$39 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2,875 +$135 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $140 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3,565 +$59 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $350 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $372 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $777 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8,682 −$8,661 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6,748 −$6,739 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7,365 +$233 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,927 +$90 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $458 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2,126 +$69 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1,407 +$77 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $248 19h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 18¢ $1,489 19h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $172 28h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $32 28h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $104 28h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $123 28h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $128 28h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $23 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $362 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $61 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $198 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $236 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $470 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $72 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $791 32h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $903 32h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $4,621 33h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,215 33h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,113 33h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,215 33h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $159 33h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $19 34h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1,185 34h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $137 34h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $147 34h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $289 35h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $857 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,111.22 · official $5,108.84 (match) · 1338 history records