Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c70…0914 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized +$11 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$102
crypto 20% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +49.9% +35.6% 50% 50% +33.5%
≤30d 4 +49.9% +35.6% 50% 50% +33.5%
≤90d 4 +49.9% +35.6% 50% 50% +33.5%
all 4 +49.9% +35.6% 50% 50% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.6% 50% +33.5%
10% +22.6% 25% +20.7%
15% +10.8% 25% +9.0%
20% -0.1% 25% -1.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$39 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $97 $84 −$13 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $56 +$181 +325%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 −$47 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $61 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $56 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $55 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.37 · official $223.37 (match) · 13 history records