Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c76…7409 sports 697 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$297 (-4%) realized −$300 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%341W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$71
14 days+$40
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$291
other 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +8.8% -1.6% 56% 56% +4.3%
≤30d 57 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 53% -3.0%
≤90d 496 -2.8% -12.1% 49% 48% -15.1%
all 695 -4.0% -13.1% 49% 48% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 48% -13.3%
10% -21.4% 47% -21.6%
15% -29.0% 46% -29.2%
20% -36.0% 42% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$300
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses341 / 354
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)695 / 697
History coverage110d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 695 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 53¢ 52¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 68¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +67%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $33 +$20 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -14%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $29 +$19 +63%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +64%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$14 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $33 −$21 -64%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $14 +$15 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 +$19 +88%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $34 −$34 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $32 +$32 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $19 +$13 +70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $16 −$16 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $17 −$17 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $38 +$26 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $25 +$16 +62%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. May 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $18 +$13 +73%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 27 $13 −$12 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $65 −$11 -16%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $24 −$9 -39%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $40 +$29 +72%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $26 +$17 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $15 +$12 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $26 +$30 +114%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $30 +$36 +119%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $15 +$19 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $26 −$26 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $24 +$12 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 68¢ $13 2m
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 7m
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $40 7m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 43¢ $18 27m
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 28m
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 36m
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $21 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 39¢ $13 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 88¢ $48 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 44¢ $15 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $15 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $21 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $33 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $20 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $29 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $15 9h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $20 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 26h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 26h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $15 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 36h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $10 47h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $14 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.02 · official $33.02 (match) · 1665 history records