Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5C 0x5c7a…fdbe sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,950 (+21%) realized +$1,950 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$413
7 days+$813
14 days+$1,695
30 days+$2,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,508
other 22% +$516
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 53% +8.7%
≤30d 26 +11.2% +0.6% 58% 58% +11.9%
≤90d 26 +11.2% +0.6% 58% 58% +11.9%
all 26 +11.2% +0.6% 58% 58% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 58% +11.9%
10% -9.0% 58% +1.2%
15% -17.8% 58% -8.6%
20% -25.9% 50% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$212 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$900
Realized+$1,950
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage23d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $500 $577 +$77 (+15%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $128 −$72 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $303 +$173 +57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $203 +$273 +134%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $203 +$168 +83%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $304 +$251 +83%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $305 +$357 +117%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$128 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $708 +$411 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $306 +$535 +175%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $203 +$214 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $304 +$251 +83%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1,205 −$529 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $203 +$201 +99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $506 −$500 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $994 +$728 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $303 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $203 16h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $203 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 48¢ $203 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $304 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $203 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $102 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $431 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $202 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,119 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $102 8d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $203 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $204 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $708 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $675 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $304 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $101 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $699 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $899.71 · official $899.71 (match) · 70 history records