Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c7f…aeed crypto 1286 markets active 6d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (194 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$336 (-15%) realized −$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%784W / 505L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day194.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$79
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (194 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -8.4% -17.2% 67% 56% -17.2%
≤30d 1289 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 54% -15.8%
≤90d 1289 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 54% -15.8%
all 1289 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 54% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 54% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 45% -23.9%
15% -29.3% 34% -31.2%
20% -36.2% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses784 / 505
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1289 / 1286
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day194.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1289 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.85 · official $1.85 (match) · 3500 history records