Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c81…d864 other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+1%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%16W / 63L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$12
other 18% +$45
politics 14% −$8
economics 3% −$1
sports 2% +$88
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +2.0% -7.7% 12% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 58 -2.0% -11.3% 12% 10% -9.8%
all 79 +5.0% -5.0% 20% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 13% -9.1%
10% -14.1% 13% -17.8%
15% -22.4% 13% -25.7%
20% -30.0% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×6.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses16 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage607d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $17 +$6 +36%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $191 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $179 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $365 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $393 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $377 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $195 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $180 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $195 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $191 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 11 $22 $0 -1%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$10 +104%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 23h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 29h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 29h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $114 5d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $41 8d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $41 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 11d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 73¢ $17 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 16d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 16d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 17d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.34 · official $210.34 (match) · 295 history records