Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c81…5e7d politics 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-0%) realized −$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,510per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$32
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$101
other 38% −$121
economics 6% −$13
culture 4% −$11
sports 4% +$33
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 38 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 106 +0.2% -9.4% 9% 6% -9.6%
all 112 +0.2% -9.4% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 5% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,660) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$5 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,510
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $525 $524 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $326 $327 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2,208 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 22 $1,660 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $296 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,454 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $6,850 −$8 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,465 −$3 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 10 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,403 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,573 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,454 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,550 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,300 −$7 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,033 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $66 +$69 +105%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $185 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $665 +$3 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,547 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,009 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $709 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $3,913 −$3 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $972 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $2,288 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $727 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $885 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,533 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $2,836 −$4 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $42 +$48 +114%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $55 +$42 +76%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $525 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $468 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $469 4h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $697 6h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $698 8h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $712 21h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $713 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $690 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $691 31h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $573 46h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $574 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $295 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $296 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,097 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,228 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,185 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $884 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $885 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,265 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,267 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,051 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 10d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $326 11d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,390 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,393 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $851.16 · official $851.16 (match) · 353 history records