Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c86…fc6e crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.5% -12.7% 77% 41% -10.2%
≤30d 34 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 38% -14.6%
≤90d 34 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 38% -14.6%
all 34 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 38% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 38% -14.6%
10% -20.9% 29% -22.8%
15% -28.5% 24% -30.3%
20% -35.5% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$42 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records