Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c87…f57d other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$9
other 32% −$1
politics 19% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 14% 0% -11.2%
all 70 -1.6% -11.0% 27% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -10.3%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage376d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $15 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $70 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $48 −$9 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $9 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 30 $2 $0 -8%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 17 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? Oct 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $17 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $9 $0 +5%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Aug 10 $18 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 7 at 5PM Aug 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 07 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 6h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $15 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $15 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 29h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $31 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $31 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $9 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $9 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $15 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $15 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $18 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $12 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $30 32d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $39 32d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $43 34d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $43 34d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 34d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 34d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 34d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $21 34d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $23 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.86 (match) · 196 history records