Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c8b…1e57 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%37W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$8
politics 23% −$2
crypto 3% +$1
other 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 64 -0.1% -9.6% 58% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses37 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage592d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon reach $296 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 13 $1,851 −$2 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 13 $1,803 −$2 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 12 $1,967 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 04 $5 $0 +0%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Feb 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $740 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $276 $0 -0%
Solana above $240 on February 7? Feb 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 21 $3 $0 +0%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 11 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 11 $3 $0 +1%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Magic Dec 08 $29 $0 -1%
Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? Dec 08 $33 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Knicks Dec 08 $11 $0 -2%
Wild vs. Kings Dec 07 $3 $0 -0%
Utah vs. Flyers Dec 07 $25 $0 -0%
Blue Jackets vs. Jets Dec 07 $6 $0 +0%
Falcons vs. Vikings Dec 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? Dec 06 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 63d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 86d
Will Amazon reach $296 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 88d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $32 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $1 208d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $40 209d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $1,849 222d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $1,851 222d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $1,802 222d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $1,803 222d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $1,965 222d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $1,967 222d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 99¢ $29 247d
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $2 302d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $2 331d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 97¢ $2 363d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 392d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 393d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 432d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 456d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 466d
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 466d
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 481d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.86 · official $32.86 (match) · 162 history records