trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 31 | $3,759 | −$3,137 | -83% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | May 23 | $916 | +$517 | +56% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? | May 09 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 09 | $400 | +$20 | +5% |
| Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? | May 07 | $140 | −$140 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 30 | $20 | −$12 | -60% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | Apr 29 | $700 | −$556 | -80% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 29 | $465 | −$460 | -99% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | Apr 29 | $1,198 | +$152 | +13% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 29 | $120 | −$120 | -100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | Apr 28 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Apr 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | Apr 27 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? | Apr 26 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | Apr 26 | $4,175 | −$4,175 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | Apr 26 | $3,820 | −$3,564 | -93% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | Apr 25 | $1,484 | −$1,237 | -83% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Apr 24 | $9,711 | +$2,867 | +30% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | Apr 24 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Apr 24 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Apr 22 | $40 | +$31 | +77% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Apr 21 | $10 | −$4 | -42% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 08 | $3,599 | −$3,589 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +88.8% | +70.8% | 50% | 50% | -80.7% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -54.8% | -59.1% | 22% | 17% | -53.7% |
| all | 23 | -54.8% | -59.1% | 22% | 17% | -53.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -59.1% | 17% | -53.7% |
| 10% | -63.0% | 13% | -58.1% |
| 15% | -66.6% | 9% | -62.2% |
| 20% | -69.9% | 9% | -65.9% |