Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c91…b4a5 world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$4
other 11% −$2
politics 4% −$2
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% −$3
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.1% 14% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 10% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 23 -4.2% -13.3% 22% 0% -10.6%
all 60 -4.6% -13.7% 37% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 2% -10.6%
10% -21.9% 0% -19.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 39¢ $40 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $41 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $41 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $67 −$5 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $95 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $6 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $43 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Mar 31 $4 −$3 -73%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 23 $7 $0 +5%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 05 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 29 $5 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $5 $0 -10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 37¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $37 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $14 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $20 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $11 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $25 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $39 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $41 37h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $22 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.66 · official $42.51 (match) · 188 history records