Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c92…4e7c sports 330 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$219,782 (-9%) realized −$219,782 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate84%276W / 54L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,064per market
Trades / day91.1pace
Fees−$5,671est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,310
7 days−$25,830
14 days−$14,364
30 days−$88,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$116,644
other 9% +$476
crypto 1% +$412
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +17.2% +6.0% 82% 11% -13.3%
≤30d 320 +4.7% -5.3% 84% 13% -13.3%
≤90d 330 +5.2% -4.8% 84% 14% -14.0%
all 330 +5.2% -4.8% 84% 14% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 14% -14.0%
10% -13.9% 7% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 5% -29.8%
20% -29.8% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$9,824) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$640 vs −$5,416 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$219,782
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses276 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$5,671
Open positions0
Markets (closed)330 / 330
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$7,064
Trades / day91.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 330 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $797 +$58 +7%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6,660 +$142 +2%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 24 $7,280 +$172 +2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,032 +$188 +6%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio Jun 23 $4,034 +$32 +1%
Set Handicap: Damas (-1.5) vs Hassan (+1.5) Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Stefan Haita Jun 23 $6,495 +$402 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,523 +$39 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $4,300 +$208 +5%
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker Jun 23 $2,001 +$20 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $6 −$2 -26%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $3,050 +$188 +6%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $1,113 −$506 -45%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $1,100 +$6 +1%
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Viktor Durasovic Jun 23 $3,680 +$110 +3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $976 +$24 +2%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $6,575 +$20 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,326 +$249 +4%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $6,282 +$39 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,101 +$61 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,003 +$38 +2%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon Jun 22 $3,940 +$162 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Soto vs Monzon Jun 22 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $5,778 +$145 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi Jun 22 $4,695 +$85 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 22 $991 +$9 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si Jun 22 $4,546 +$132 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea Jun 22 $1,392 +$14 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 22 $973 +$26 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 22 $1,451 +$10 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $3,944 +$119 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 22 $1,428 +$14 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 22 $485 +$15 +3%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $1,127 +$5 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,235 +$79 +2%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $13 +$33 +244%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $8 +$92 +1116%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,979 +$20 +1%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $4,966 +$149 +3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4,866 +$96 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,824 +$32 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $2,307 +$14 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Hanfmann vs Vallejo Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $2,963 +$29 +1%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 21 $4,587 +$223 +5%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $1,871 +$116 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $797 52m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $397 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $2,622 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $2,354 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $1,396 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $1 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $242 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $20 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 97¢ $1,676 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $1,673 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 97¢ $1,672 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $1,665 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Croatia 98¢ $7,013 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Croatia 97¢ $267 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $3,032 4h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio BUY Andrej Nedic 99¢ $2,050 5h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio BUY Andrej Nedic 99¢ $50 5h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio BUY Andrej Nedic 99¢ $143 5h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio BUY Andrej Nedic 99¢ $1,792 5h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Stefan Haita BUY Felix Balshaw 94¢ $6,495 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,563 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,776 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records