Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5c94…f9f4 crypto 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,753 (-8%) realized −$2,753 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%155W / 152L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$290est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$444
14 days−$448
30 days−$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$3,440
world 19% +$1,000
crypto 10% −$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -21.9% -29.3% 37% 36% -22.9%
≤30d 176 -14.5% -22.6% 47% 41% -21.3%
≤90d 307 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 42% -17.2%
all 307 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 42% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 42% -17.2%
10% -29.8% 35% -25.2%
15% -36.6% 31% -32.4%
20% -42.8% 25% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$69 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses155 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$290
Open positions0
Markets (closed)307 / 306
History coverage105d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 307 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5 Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$45 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$34 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$13 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $166 +$182 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $80 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 716 history records