Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c94…6ba9 crypto 328 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$432 (-9%) realized −$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%137W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$568
7 days−$713
14 days−$713
30 days−$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$211
sports 35% −$422
other 30% −$151
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -42.4% -47.9% 27% 26% -33.2%
≤30d 131 -28.4% -35.2% 34% 31% -31.8%
≤90d 327 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 39% -25.0%
all 327 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 39% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 39% -25.0%
10% -26.5% 35% -32.2%
15% -33.6% 32% -38.7%
20% -40.1% 28% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses137 / 190
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)327 / 328
History coverage98d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $24 +$13 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $56 −$51 -91%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $28 −$23 -81%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $160 −$158 -99%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $75 +$114 +152%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $56 −$56 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $324 −$320 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $232 +$96 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $75 +$37 +50%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $75 +$24 +32%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $53 +$45 +86%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $38 +$15 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$16 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $228 −$228 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $76 +$423 +558%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $23 −$21 -91%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $31 +$117 +384%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$19 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 5m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 31m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 51m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 51m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 51m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 53m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $56 1h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 9¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $28 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $160 6h
Czechia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $56 11h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $75 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $48 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $324 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $328 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $232 28h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 32h
England vs. Croatia: Team to Take First Corner BUY England 69¢ $20 32h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $112 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 32h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $75 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $4 36h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 36h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 60¢ $98 45h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.70 · official $36.70 (match) · 828 history records