Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c95…98ca sports 89 markets active 2d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$161 (-13%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%57W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$126
14 days−$142
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$149
sports 44% −$16
crypto 1% −$1
politics 1% −$2
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 70% 63% -22.2%
≤30d 63 +4.3% -5.6% 68% 59% -21.0%
≤90d 88 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 50% -20.6%
all 88 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 50% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 50% -20.6%
10% -20.9% 33% -28.2%
15% -28.5% 25% -35.1%
20% -35.6% 16% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses57 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage35d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $132 +$14 +11%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $20 +$4 +21%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 −$24 -31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$7 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$14 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 +$3 +53%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $15 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $14 −$2 -11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $17 +$6 +36%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$7 -62%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4 +$2 +59%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $29 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $28 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $131 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $132 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 1¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 70¢ $19 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 74¢ $15 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 7¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $53 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $15 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $20 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 45¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $15 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $60 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $19 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records