Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

5C 0x5c95…bf21 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,580 (+5%) realized +$1,557 · open +$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%7W / 6L

Drawdown77%max

Avg bet$2,259per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$216est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2,382

7 days+$1,903

14 days+$1,903

30 days+$1,903

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)+2.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+16.0%	+4.9%	64%	64%	+7.9%
≤30d	11	+16.0%	+4.9%	64%	64%	+7.9%
≤90d	13	+13.2%	+2.4%	54%	54%	-5.7%
all	13	+13.2%	+2.4%	54%	54%	-5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+2.4%	54%	-5.7%
10% ← realistic here	-7.4%	31%	-14.7%
15%	-16.4%	31%	-22.9%
20%	-24.6%	23%	-30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late +26% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$409 vs −$276 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage

Net worth$1,123

Realized+$1,557

Unrealized+$23

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses7 / 6

Est. fees paid−$216

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage117d

Avg bet$2,259

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown77%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	72¢	$1,100	$1,123	+$23 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$305	−$300	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,059	+$411	+39%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$153	+$364	+238%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,508	+$300	+20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$3,010	+$361	+12%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$103	−$47	-46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2,011	+$428	+21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$255	−$136	-54%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$507	+$473	+93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1,010	+$528	+52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$505	−$478	-95%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Apr 12	$15,093	−$692	-5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Mar 22	$4,997	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$305	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$1,110	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	78¢	$755	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$304	6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$153	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$1,508	23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	89¢	$3,010	26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$56	26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$2,011	28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	16¢	$119	28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$153	29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$102	29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	51¢	$507	46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	14¢	$21	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$505	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	65¢	$1,010	2d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	56¢	$2,303	66d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	56¢	$2,174	66d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	56¢	$5,614	66d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	57¢	$4,311	66d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	26¢	$4,997	87d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	26¢	$4,997	96d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	59¢	$15,093	117d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,123.24 · official $1,123.24 (match) · 31 history records