Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5c95…2e62 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$14
politics 36% −$11
sports 7% −$60
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -8.0% -16.7% 5% 3% -9.9%
all 114 -8.4% -17.1% 8% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 4% -9.8%
10% -25.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -32.3% 3% -26.3%
20% -38.9% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 105
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage117d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $166 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $165 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $393 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $160 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $208 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $424 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $368 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $343 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $176 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $408 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $397 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $203 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $233 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $372 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $198 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $409 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $406 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $470 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $219 21d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $166 29d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $166 31d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $179 31d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $179 32d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 32d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 40d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $165 43d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $165 46d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $164 47d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $164 47d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $184 47d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $184 47d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $224 47d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $224 48d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 48d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 48d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 48d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $182 49d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 49d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 49d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 49d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 49d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $222 50d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $222 50d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $198 50d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $198 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.95 · official $62.95 (match) · 312 history records