Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c97…fa05 other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,221 (+7%) realized +$2,902 · open +$319
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate78%40W / 11L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$733per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$3,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,265
7 days−$1,198
14 days+$4,556
30 days+$4,877
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$4,803
world 14% −$135
politics 8% −$1,935
sports 1% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +73.8% +57.2% 87% 73% -14.4%
≤30d 41 +27.7% +15.5% 83% 56% +1.8%
≤90d 51 +17.5% +6.3% 78% 47% -4.5%
all 51 +17.5% +6.3% 78% 47% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 47% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -3.9% 22% -13.6%
15% -13.2% 18% -22.0%
20% -21.7% 14% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$517) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$709 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3,174
Realized+$2,902
Unrealized+$319
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses40 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)51 / 65
History coverage33d
Avg bet$733
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Emiliano Martinez join Bayern Munich? No 78¢ 88¢ $443 $504 +$61 (+14%)
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $456 $476 +$20 (+4%)
Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? No 80¢ 99¢ $332 $412 +$80 (+24%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 97¢ $280 $387 +$107 (+38%)
Will Elliot Anderson join Inter Milan? No 93¢ 100¢ $306 $328 +$22 (+7%)
Will Emiliano Martinez join Manchester United? No 91¢ 100¢ $225 $247 +$22 (+10%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 85¢ 97¢ $170 $193 +$23 (+14%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $186 $188 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $116 $120 +$4 (+3%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 65¢ 64¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 67¢ 52¢ $118 $90 −$27 (-23%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 48¢ 49¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elliot Anderson join Arsenal? No 91¢ 100¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+10%)
Will Prince-Osei Owusu win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? No 82¢ 95¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $5,058 +$101 +2%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $89 −$84 -95%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 20 $104 +$33 +32%
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Jun 20 $96 +$76 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5,063 +$2,068 +41%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 19 $80 +$71 +88%
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $45 +$55 +122%
Will Jhon Córdoba be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $501 +$54 +11%
Will Juan Fernando Quintero be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $149 +$12 +8%
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $395 +$149 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,029 −$4,434 -44%
Will Daichi Kamada be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $256 +$37 +14%
Will Kaishu Sano be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $77 +$310 +400%
Will Ritsu Doan be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $98 +$11 +11%
Will Ao Tanaka be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $86 +$344 +400%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$17 -17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,079 +$5,449 +107%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $362 +$78 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $208 +$15 +7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3,871 +$307 +8%
Will Cole Palmer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +3%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $312 +$88 +28%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $184 −$168 -91%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $235 +$25 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $182 +$20 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,462 +$119 +8%
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Jun 02 $120 +$16 +14%
DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by May 31? Jun 01 $185 +$9 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $342 +$58 +17%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $687 +$113 +16%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 30 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? May 27 $721 +$37 +5%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $517 +$95 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $110 +$56 +51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $360 −$282 -78%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $870 +$130 +15%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 23 $205 −$149 -73%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 22 $271 +$32 +12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 22 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 22 $321 −$299 -93%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $523 +$26 +5%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $1,207 +$186 +15%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $430 +$35 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 21 $210 −$198 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $376 $0 -0%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $316 +$24 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 65¢ $99 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $1,873 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $43 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $3,237 8h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No $4 9h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $136 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5,058 13h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 17h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 17h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 21h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $100 21h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $59 21h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,174.22 · official $3,174.22 (match) · 336 history records