Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c98…e37c crypto 240 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$704 (-7%) realized −$704 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%132W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$154
14 days−$154
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$669
other 2% −$74
sports 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -12.3% -20.6% 61% 30% -18.8%
≤30d 72 -14.9% -23.0% 53% 26% -21.6%
≤90d 90 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 28% -20.4%
all 240 -11.6% -20.0% 55% 30% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 30% -16.1%
10% -27.7% 20% -24.1%
15% -34.7% 12% -31.4%
20% -41.1% 7% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$704
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses132 / 108
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage198d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$9 +29%
Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bangladesh win? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -64%
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel Jun 29 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$26 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $32 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $96 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 20m
Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 2¢ $1 1h
Will Bangladesh win? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1011 history records