Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c98…ef88 crypto 42 markets active 2d ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$5,566 (-10%) realized −$5,304 · open −$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%5W / 31L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,333per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$678
14 days+$1,464
30 days+$1,464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,981
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.1% -45.8% 0% 0% -34.3%
≤30d 8 +21.0% +9.4% 25% 25% +24.5%
≤90d 9 +13.3% +2.5% 22% 22% +6.5%
all 36 -18.8% -26.5% 14% 14% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 14% -3.7%
10% -33.5% 14% -12.9%
15% -40.0% 11% -21.4%
20% -45.9% 11% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -66% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,506 vs −$589 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$432
Realized−$5,304
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage222d
Avg bet$1,333
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $178 $134 −$44 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $154 $99 −$55 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $123 $61 −$62 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 13 $1,556 −$397 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 10 $96 −$52 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 10 $96 −$56 -58%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $633 −$132 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 10 $97 −$40 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 08 $524 −$135 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 06 $47 +$61 +130%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $840 +$2,215 +264%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 24 $1,170 −$566 -48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 13 $571 −$252 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 11 $2,157 −$2,157 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $2,034 +$963 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $2,274 −$2,024 -89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $8,096 −$2,231 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $450 −$391 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $648 −$252 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $300 −$138 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $300 −$120 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $1,150 −$189 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 8-14? Dec 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 8-14? Dec 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 8-14? Dec 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 5 Dec 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.40 December 1-7? Dec 04 $72 −$61 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $50 −$30 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Nov 30 $10,761 −$3,552 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30? Nov 30 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30? Nov 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 November 24-30? Nov 28 $1,372 −$1,208 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30? Nov 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 24-30? Nov 26 $2,563 −$2,443 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30? Nov 26 $476 −$476 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 23 $7,594 −$609 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 21 $7,377 +$9,017 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 Nov 20 $1,000 +$274 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 19 $350 −$257 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $83 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $107 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $106 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $42 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $132 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $92 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $68 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $312 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $51 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $124 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $56 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $87 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $96 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $96 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $96 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $377 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $633 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $252 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $390 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $108 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 31¢ $109 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $106 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $524 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $106 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.91 · official $434.98 (match) · 177 history records