Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c99…279a politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$6
other 37% −$3
sports 12% −$2
crypto 9% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$954) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage82d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close Jun 17 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $1,161 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Jae-ok win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 22 $923 $0 +0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $952 −$2 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 21 $954 $0 +0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? May 20 $55 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $983 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 28 $167 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 28 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 49m
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $1,116 59m
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $1,070 1h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,101 1h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,066 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,160 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $36 2h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,161 2h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 24d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $32 24d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 24d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $10 24d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 24d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $21 24d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $9 24d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $18 24d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? SELL No 100¢ $62 26d
Will Yoon Jae-ok win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $41 26d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY No 100¢ $27 26d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY No 100¢ $22 26d
Will Yoon Jae-ok win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $709 26d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $181 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records