Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5C 0x5ca2…0762 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$35 (-9%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$23
tech 13% +$1
world 11% +$16
finance 8% −$30
crypto 8% −$22
sports 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.0% -1.4% 62% 62% -9.1%
≤30d 8 +9.0% -1.4% 62% 62% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +6.1% -4.0% 67% 58% -10.7%
all 12 +6.1% -4.0% 67% 58% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 58% -10.7%
10% -13.2% 58% -19.2%
15% -21.6% 50% -27.0%
20% -29.2% 33% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage74d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +108%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +56%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 +$7 +47%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$15 +69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$25 -79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 18 $25 +$6 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 22 $30 −$22 -74%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 18¢ $8 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 67¢ $30 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $20 59d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $50 63d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 80¢ $25 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 97¢ $50 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $49.59 (match) · 25 history records