Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5ca8…ed52 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$88 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$344
7 days−$229
14 days−$242
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$80
crypto 24% −$141
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -56.5% -60.6% 29% 10% -20.6%
≤30d 73 -45.3% -50.6% 30% 12% -20.9%
≤90d 73 -45.3% -50.6% 30% 12% -20.9%
all 73 -45.3% -50.6% 30% 12% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.6% 12% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -55.3% 11% -28.4%
15% -59.6% 8% -35.4%
20% -63.6% 7% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$914
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 51
Open positions11
Markets (closed)73 / 84
History coverage10d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $226 $301 +$75 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $125 $128 +$3 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $107 $119 +$12 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $104 $89 −$15 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $45 $21 −$24 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 7¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-68%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $113 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $123 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $111 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $685 +$468 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $225 −$218 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $228 −$191 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $75 −$54 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $65 −$46 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $914.05 · official $914.05 (match) · 297 history records