Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cac…f629 other 120 markets active 13h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-18%) realized −$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$26
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$32
sports 47% +$7
world 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +196.0% +167.8% 59% 59% +59.9%
≤30d 97 -20.6% -28.2% 14% 14% -29.1%
≤90d 97 -20.6% -28.2% 14% 14% -29.1%
all 97 -20.6% -28.2% 14% 14% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 14% -29.1%
10% -35.1% 14% -35.9%
15% -41.3% 14% -42.1%
20% -47.1% 14% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 83
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)97 / 120
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 +$8 +257%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$5 +474%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 37h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 37h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 37h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 37h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 37h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 37h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 37h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 37h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 37h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 37h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 9d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.51 · official $27.51 (match) · 163 history records